While social media may paint a negative picture of the watch market, economic data tell a different story. The industry, both modern and vintage watches, continues to show signs of strength and growth. The interest in quality watchmaking, supported by a diverse global audience, suggests that the appeal of these timeless objects is not likely to disappear.
For investors and buyers, the key is to do thorough research, buy from reliable sources, and consider both investment potential and personal passion. In conclusion, although there are rumors of crisis and a burst speculative bubble, the reality is that the world of watchmaking, with its combination of modern innovation and historical appeal, remains strong and exciting. The numbers don't lie: the market is expanding and interest in quality watches shows no signs of waning.
In recent months, social media has been flooded with posts and videos announcing an impending crisis in the watchmaking world. On Instagram and TikTok, influencers and enthusiasts are discussing the supposed collapse of the market and the end of the speculative bubble that has characterized the past few years. But is the situation really that bad?
Social Media and the Watchmaking Crisis.
Numerous posts on Instagram tell stories of falling prices and investors trying to sell their luxury pieces. User @watchguru_90 writes, "It's official, the watch bubble has burst! Prices are collapsing and many are losing money." Similarly, on TikTok, @luxurywatchesdaily's viral video, which has amassed millions of views, states, "Watches are no longer a good investment. Be careful!"Another post by @vintagewatchlover on Instagram shows a photo of a luxury watch with the comment, "Prices are plummeting, better sell now before it's too late." The concern is also reflected in the comments, where users like @timepiecollector2023 add, "I've seen the prices of my watches drop by 20 percent in the last six months. It's time to get out of the market."
The Economic Reality of the Sector
Contrary to these rumors of crisis, economic data suggest a different reality. The watch market, both modern and vintage, continues to show signs of strength and growth. In 2024, sales of new watches are expected to increase compared to previous years, with significant growth in different price ranges and continents.
Growing Sales
In 2022, global sales of new watches reached about 10.38 million units, increasing to 11.21 million in 2023. Forecasts for 2024 indicate a further increase to 12.15 million units. This increase is driven by strong demand in Asia, Europe, and North America, with particular interest in mid- and high-end watches.
Price Bands and Trends
The luxury watch industry is not immune to economic fluctuations, but the lower-middle and upper-middle price ranges have seen steady growth. This segment of the market is supported by consumers seeking quality and craftsmanship at affordable prices. The extreme luxury segment also continues to thrive, thanks to demand in emerging markets and renewed interest in unique and collectible pieces.
The Charm of Vintage Watches
Parallel to the market for new models, vintage watchmaking is experiencing a moment of great interest. Collectors and enthusiasts continue to seek out vintage watches for their historical value and timeless appeal. Auctions of vintage watches often record record sales, such as the recent case of Rolex Ref. 4113, sold for 3,250,000 euros by Monaco Legend Group.
The Attraction of History
Vintage watches are not just instruments for measuring time, but pieces of history. Their uniqueness, the history that accompanies them, and the emotional connection they can create make these objects especially desirable. This segment of the market continues to grow, showing that interest in watchmaking is far from waning.
The Role of Emerging Markets
Emerging markets, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, are playing an increasingly important role in the watch industry. Growing affluence and interest in luxury products are driving demand for high-end and extreme luxury watches.
Asia: An Expanding Market
Asia represents the fastest growing market for luxury watches. With projected sales of 5.3 million units in 2024, Asia is set to maintain its leading position in the global watch market.
Middle East: The Charm of Luxury
The Middle East, with its strong traditions of luxury and opulence, continues to show robust demand for high-end watches and extreme luxury. Sales in this region are expected to grow from 600,000 units in 2022 to 780,000 units in 2024.
A first conclusion The watch market, both modern and vintage, continues to grow and shows signs of strength, despite social media may suggest otherwise. The global and diverse interest in quality watches confirms that the appeal of these items remains strong. Despite rumors of crisis and a speculative bubble, the industry proves robust and expanding.
Let us now try to go into the details of collectible and contemporary watchmaking, starting with the auction world, which by its nature is the one that obligatorily provides real numbers on sales trends
The recent watch auction market
In 2023 and 2024, the major auction houses had different performances in watch sales, with some significant fluctuations in annual results.
Christie's: In 2023, Christie's saw a significant decline in total sales from $8.4 billion in 2022 to $6.2 billion in 2023, reflecting a larger 19 percent decline in combined sales among the major auction houses. Despite this, Christie's remains a major player in the watch auction market, with notable sales such as the Geneva auction in May 2024 that featured rare and high-value pieces, including Rolex and Patek Philippe watches. The market for vintage and limited edition watches continues to be strong, contributing significantly to(Christie's) auction results(Jing Daily Culture).
Sotheby's: In contrast, Sotheby's kept sales figures stable in 2023, with $8 billion, similar to the previous year's results. Sotheby's strategy of aligning auctions with key cultural events and expanding into new locations has helped maintain their market presence. Their watch auctions, which feature popular brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Vacheron Constantin, have attracted significant interest from younger collectors, a growing segment in the luxury watch market (Sothebys.com)(Jing Daily Culture).
Phillips: Phillips has seen a decline in auction sales, dropping 15 percent from just over $1 billion in 2022 to $840.7 million in 2023. Despite this, Phillips is focusing on restructuring and expansion in Asian markets, which could help strengthen future sales(Jing Daily Culture).
Monaco Legend Group: Monaco Legend Group also played an important role in the watch auction market. In 2023 and 2024, the group continued to gain attention for its sales of rare and high-end watches. With a focus on unique and historical pieces, Monaco Legend Group was able to attract collectors and enthusiasts from all over the world, strengthening its position in the luxury auction market.
Overall, while Christie's faced a decline, Sotheby's stable performance and the strategic moves of Phillips and Monaco Legend Group highlight the dynamic and competitive nature of the watch auction market. Growing interest from younger collectors is also shaping the future of the luxury watch auction landscape(Christie's)(Sothebys.com)(Jing Daily Culture).
Let's focus on 2024 In the first half of 2024, watch auction sales showed attractive performance among the major auction houses.
Christie's: Despite some technical difficulties, such as the website problem during the Only Watch auction, Christie's continued to record significant results. The Only Watch 2024 auction raised about CHF 28,320,000, with the highlight, a Patek Philippe 6301A Steel Sonnerie Minute Repeater, selling for CHF 15.7 million (about $17.3 million)(Hodinkee). In addition, sales of rare watches in Geneva in May attracted a lot of attention with unique pieces from brands such as Rolex and Patek Philippe.
Sotheby's: Continued to see strong participation and successful sales. Noteworthy sales included some notable auctions, such as one dedicated to rare and collectible watches, which included historic and high-end pieces from brands such as Patek Philippe, Richard Mille, and Jaeger-LeCoultre(Sothebys.com). Sotheby's also reduced buyers' premium fees, making their auctions more attractive to collectors(Sothebys.com).
Phillips: Maintained its position in the market with well-curated auctions. The "New York Watch Auction: X" saw significant sales, such as a Rolex Cosmograph Daytona "Paul Newman" sold for $431,800 and a Patek Philippe Nautilus sold for $101,600(Phillips). Phillips auctions also continue to show strong participation with a 70 percent increase in auction registrations from 2019(Hodinkee).
Monaco Legend Group: Continued to gain recognition for selling rare and high-end watches. Their auctions have attracted collectors from all over the world, strengthening their position in the luxury auction market due to the quality and uniqueness of the pieces offered.
In summary, the watch auction market in the first half of 2024 remained dynamic and competitive, with increasing participation of younger collectors and continued interest in vintage and high-end watches. The major auction houses, despite some challenges, were able to maintain their status and attract significant sales through unique pieces and strategic cost reductions for buyers (Hodinkee) (Sothebys.com)(Phillips).
